Predictors of outcome in 176 South African patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy.

OBJECTIVE Identify novel prognostic factors for patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM). DESIGN AND SETTING Prospective cohort study conducted in a single tertiary care centre in South Africa. PATIENTS 176 African women with newly diagnosed PPCM were studied. INTERVENTIONS Clinical assessment, echocardiography and laboratory results were obtained at baseline and at 6 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Poor outcome was defined as the combined end point of death, left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (LVEF) < 35%, or remaining in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class III/IV at 6 months. Complete LV recovery was defined as LVEF ≥55% at 6 months. RESULTS Forty-five (26%) patients had a poor outcome. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that, after adjustment for age, NYHA functional class, LVEF and systolic blood pressure, increased left ventricular end systolic dimension (LVESD), lower body mass index (BMI) and lower total cholesterol at baseline were independent predictors of poor outcome (adjusted OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.15, p=0.001; OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.96, p=0.004, and OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.73, p=0.0004, respectively). Thirty (21%) of the 141 surviving patients with echocardiographic follow-up recovered LV function at 6 months. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that, after adjustment for NYHA functional class, LVEF and left ventricular end diastolic dimension, older age and smaller LVESD at baseline were predictors of LV recovery (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.17, p=0.02 and OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.98, p=0.007, respectively). CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that increased LVESD, lower BMI and lower serum cholesterol at baseline may be independent predictors of poor outcome in patients with PPCM, while older age and smaller LVESD at baseline appear to be independently associated with a higher chance of LV recovery.